From AI to ROI

Churn Model ROI

by award winning modelers and data scientists

This case study shows how improving customer retention with GlorifAI's churn models can lead to real savings for telecom operators. All incremental revenue estimates are based on the GlorifAI team's real-world experience.

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Example: U.S. Telecom

+$29.1M Yearly

The following example models a hypothetical US Tier 1 wireless operator with 10 million targeted postpaid subscribers, operating at a 0.9% monthly churn baseline, consistent with publicly reported Tier 1 operator benchmarks (Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile). We assume that 20% of at-risk customers contact an AI-assisted channel (voice bots, chat agents, digital self-service). In addition, CLV reflects a blended Premium and Mid-Market postpaid subscriber base.

10M Subscriber Pilot

An initial subset of consumers to pilot enhanced retention strategies.

0.9% Monthly Churn

Churn rates among Tier 1 operators are commonly 0.8% - 1.0%.

$900 CLV

$50 monthly ARPU, 40% gross margin and 3.75 years of saved tenure.

15% Churn Reduction

Common improvement seen by the GlorifAI team.

+$29.1M Yearly

Example: EU Telecom

+€5.1M Yearly

The following example applies the same methodology to a hypothetical European Tier 1 wireless operator with 5 million targeted postpaid subscribers, operating at a 0.9% monthly churn baseline, consistent with publicly reported Tier 1 operator benchmarks (Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Orange). CLV reflects a blended Premium and Mid-Market postpaid subscriber base. Revenue impact is presented in Euros.

+€5.1M Yearly

5M Subscriber Pilot

An initial subset of consumers to pilot enhanced retention strategies.

0.9% Monthly Churn

Churn rates among Tier 1 operators are commonly 0.8% - 1.0%.

€319 CLV

€20 monthly ARPU, 38% gross margin and 3.5 years of saved tenure.

15% Churn Reduction

Common improvement seen by the GlorifAI team.

improve customer retention

Flavors of Churn

There are many different kinds of churn models - each predicts a unique kind of customer exit behavior, allowing for targeted retention strategies and more saves.

Protect market share by identifying high-risk customers before they leave.

Obtain a crucial advantage by identifying high-risk customers prone to switching to competitors.

Identify customers who benefit from less proactive communication.

Identify customers at risk of leaving due to overages, pricing concerns, overall value perception, or additional fees.

Identify customers at risk of involuntary churn and reduce customer attrition.

Protect market share by identifying and retaining high-risk SMB customers before they leave.

what to expect

Churn Modeling Process

With over 200 models deployed to production, the GlorifAI team is highly experienced in converting your data into ROI. Below are the four steps we commonly take in modeling churn for our clients.

Step 1. Create your Signal

Combine your in-house data into a clear, coherent signal for your AI and ML models. This data should contain advanced features and be structured to productionized training and inference.

Optimized for AI and ML

Advanced feature engineering tailored for model training and agentic systems.

Advanced Data Modeling

Building features that capture complex domain and business interactions.

Identity Reconciliation

Resolve fragmented identities across customer accounts and systems into a unified, comprehensive view.

Modeling Lifecycle

Define consistent data sets for training, validation, and inference pipelines.

Step 2: Churn Modeling

Build a churn model to predict if an active customer will disconnect a service within a specified time window.

Training Set Assembly

Include data that describes the customers' line-of-service, including usage, billing and omni-channel interactions.

Modeling Algorithms

Ensemble methods using XGBoost and Neural Networks often create stable and powerful churn models.

Evaluate Model Stability

Churn models can be sensitive to aggressive and targeted competitor offerings, especially during the holidays.

Score your Base

Score customers regularly. Monitor and refresh the model as needed to maximize predictive performance.

Step 3: Customer Intelligence Layer

Combine churn scores and churn reasons into a unified intelligence layer, which allows for user-specific contexts to be sent to human and LLM agents for relevant interactions, improving retention and customer experience.

Build Intelligence Layer

Determine the semantic meaning for each driving feature, creating a unique profile for each customer.

Supply Agent Context

Condense the customer's profile into text for the AI agent, and inject the text at the beginning of each conversation.

Step 4: Pilot Study and ROI

Identify the group of customers that will receive retention offers, and then evaluate the impact of the retention strategy to measure ROI.

Target Ideal Segment

Identify customers who are both high-risk for churn and highly likely to accept a retention offer.

Retention Study

Split targeted segment into control and treatment groups, usually a 10/90 or 5/95 split to maximize impact and measure performance.

Monitor and Intervene

Evaluate the incremental conversion rate between control and treatment groups, and adjust offer/split if needed.

Evaluate ROI

Assess the difference in churn rate between control and treatment groups, and calculate realized ROI.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the minimum data history or subscriber base you need to build a reliable churn model?
We're an MVNO and don't own the underlying network - can you still model churn without network-side data?
Is a 15% relative churn reduction realistic?
How does the Customer Intelligence Layer connect to our existing agents and systems?
Do we need our own Data Science team to maintain this?
AI-Ready operational data

GlorifAI Signals

Transform fragmented, operational data into high-quality inputs for AI agents and machine learning systems.

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Learn more about the models

Our Models for Retention

Click on the model cards to learn more about our Churn, Offer Taker and CLV model offerings and how they can be used to improve retention and drive business results.